海龟交易量化交易的精髓与纪律

海龟交易：量化交易的精髓与纪律

1. 海龟交易法的起源：一场关于可教育性的实验

海龟交易法并非凭空产生，而是一场关于交易可教育性的实验。20世纪80年代，理查德·丹尼斯和威廉·埃克哈特两位交易大师就“交易是否可以被教会”的问题产生了争论。为了验证他们的观点，他们公开招募了一批普通人，并向他们传授一套系统化的交易规则，这些学员被称为“海龟交易员”。 “The turtle story proves that trading can be taught.” – 海龟的故事证明了交易是可以被教会的。 迈克尔·柯弗在书中详细介绍了这场实验，并揭示了海龟交易法的核心秘密。

The Turtle trading method did not come out of thin air, but was an experiment on the teachability of trading. In the 1980s, two trading masters, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, argued about whether trading could be taught. To test their views, they publicly recruited a group of ordinary people and taught them a set of systematic trading rules. These students were called “Turtle Traders”. “The turtle story proves that trading can be taught.” Michael Covel details this experiment in his book and reveals the core secrets of the Turtle trading method.

海龟交易法的诞生打破了“交易需要天赋”的传统观念，证明了通过学习和实践，普通人也可以成为成功的交易员。 This experiment broke the traditional notion that “trading requires talent” and proved that ordinary people can become successful traders through learning and practice.

2. 系统化交易：盈利的基石

海龟交易的核心在于建立一个系统化的交易体系，而非依赖主观判断。“The key is to have a system and follow it.” – 关键是要有一个系统并遵循它。海龟交易系统包括市场选择、头寸规模、入场、止损和退出等一系列明确的规则。 These rules were designed to be simple, objective, and easy to follow.

The core of Turtle Trading lies in establishing a systematic trading system, rather than relying on subjective judgment. “The key is to have a system and follow it.” The Turtle trading system includes a set of clear rules for market selection, position sizing, entry, stop-loss and exit. These rules were designed to be simple, objective, and easy to follow.

“You don’t need to be right to make money, you just need to be consistent.” – 你不需要正确才能赚钱，你只需要保持一致。 海龟交易的重点不在于预测市场，而在于抓住市场趋势。 The focus of Turtle trading is not on predicting the market, but on capturing market trends.

3. 海龟交易法的核心规则：

市场选择： 海龟交易系统主要交易流动性较高的期货市场，包括商品期货、外汇期货、利率期货等。

头寸规模： 海龟交易系统通过ATR（平均真实波幅）来动态调整头寸规模，以控制风险。头寸规模的计算公式如下：

头寸单位 = 账户资金 * 风险百分比 / (ATR * 每手合约的最小变动单位)

入场： 海龟交易系统使用两种主要的入场信号：

突破系统： 当价格突破过去N天的最高价或最低价时入场。

唐奇安通道： 当价格突破唐奇安通道的上轨或下轨时入场。

止损： 海龟交易系统使用ATR的倍数来设置止损位，通常为2ATR或3ATR。

退出： 海龟交易系统使用追踪止损或反向突破来退出交易。

These are the main rules the Turtle trading system follows.

4. 风险管理：交易的生命线

在任何交易策略中，风险管理都是至关重要的。“Risk management is the most important aspect of trading.” – 风险管理是交易最重要的方面。海龟交易者通过严格的止损和头寸规模控制来管理风险。

In any trading strategy, risk management is crucial. “Risk management is the most important aspect of trading.” Turtle traders manage risk through strict stop-loss and position sizing controls.

“You must be willing to lose small to win big.” – 你必须愿意小亏才能大赢。 亏损是交易中不可避免的一部分，海龟交易者接受小额亏损，以捕捉更大的利润。 Losses are an inevitable part of trading, and Turtle traders accept small losses in order to capture larger profits.

5. 纪律：战胜交易心理的关键

即使拥有完善的交易系统，也需要严格的纪律才能执行。“Discipline is the key to successful trend following.” – 纪律是成功趋势跟踪的关键。 海龟交易系统要求交易员严格按照规则执行，不能随意更改或违反。

Even with a perfect trading system, strict discipline is required to execute it. “Discipline is the key to successful trend following.” The Turtle trading system requires traders to strictly follow the rules and not change or violate them at will.

6. 趋势跟踪：顺应市场潮流

海龟交易的核心策略是趋势跟踪，即顺应市场趋势进行交易。“The trend is your friend, but it can also be your worst enemy.” – 趋势是你的朋友，但它也可能是你最糟糕的敌人。 海龟交易者不预测市场，而是跟随市场趋势。Turtle traders do not predict the market, but follow market trends.

7. 长期视角：盈利的保障

成功的交易需要长远的眼光。“Success in trend following requires a long-term perspective.” – 趋势跟踪的成功需要长远的眼光。 海龟交易系统不是一个快速致富的计划，而是一个需要长期执行的交易策略。 The Turtle trading system is not a get-rich-quick scheme, but a trading strategy that needs to be implemented over the long term.